Jerry Shares (002353):北京夜生活网 Performance Exceeds Expectations, Maintains High Growth in Second Half
The event company announced the 2019 semi-annual performance forecast, and it is expected that it will return to its mother’s net profit for the first six months of 20194.
65 ppm to 5.
21 ppm, an increase of 150% to 180% per year.
The short evaluation benefited from the high prosperity of the drilling and completion equipment industry. The company’s interim report forecasted results exceeded expectations. The company announced 1H2019 net profit attributable to the parent4.
65 ppm to 5.
21 ppm, a year-on-year increase of 150% to 180%; of which, 2Q is attributed to the mother’s net profit3.
55 ppm to 4.
11 megabytes, which previously increased by 134% to 170%, exceeding expectations, and ultimately increasing the investment in exploration and development of unconventional oil and gas resources such as shale gas. The drilling and completion equipment industry has maintained a high level of prosperity since it bottomed out in early 2018.
With cost reductions and efficiency improvements, oil companies have been able to adapt to the new normal of low oil prices. In the fourth quarter of April 2018, oil prices have fallen sharply, but upstream development and production projects have not been cancelled significantly, and expanded equipment orders have not appeared.The situation of selling orders.
We believe that the reason for this phenomenon is that after the decline in oil prices in 2014, after 4-5 years of cost reduction and efficiency improvements, most oil and gas fields in non-OPEC countries currently cost 30 to 50 US dollars per barrel.The level is lower than the current trading price of 60-65 USD / barrel of oil distribution, and higher investment yields of oil and gas fields in non-OPEC countries. Oil companies have been able to better adapt to the new normal of low oil prices, so we judge thatEven under the current low oil price normal situation, oil and gas equipment will still be in a boom upward cycle.
PetroChina’s drilling and completion equipment industry will enter a high-boom cycle. According to the CNPC News Center, in 2018, CNPC Oil Services completed a gradual increase of 10% and fracturing extension increased by 52%. In 2019, CNPC’s drilling workload will further increase beyond the growth rate.Raising to 15% -20%, the number of horizontal wells will reach 2,000, and the number of unconventional oil and gas wells such as shale gas and tight gas is expected to double, so the current drilling and completion equipment such as fracturing vehicles is still in short supply.
Since January 2019, CNPC has released a reduced number of bids for drilling and completion equipment accessories, so we judge that the volume of bids for drilling and completion equipment will increase significantly in 2019.
In addition, from the perspective of secondary schools, 30% of the annual increase in domestic natural gas production is contributed by shale gas. If the contribution of shale gas production is excluded, the growth rate of conventional natural gas production is only about 5%, which is in line with the 2020 domestic gas demand required by the State Council.The output reached the target of 200 billion cubic meters, and the compound growth rate of 10% is far from that.
Therefore, from a secondary school perspective, the drilling and completion equipment industry will also be in a high boom cycle.
It is judged that the drilling and completion equipment industry will maintain a high prosperity in the second half of the year, to ensure the growth of 2020 performance and the cumulative national gas production of 724 from January to May 2019.
900 million cubic meters, an increase of 9 in ten years.
8%, natural gas imports 3943 attachments, an annual increase of 13.
At 4%, natural gas’s external dependence continues to increase. Unconventional oil and gas resources, such as shale gas, are an important focus for ensuring energy security.
According to grassroots research in the industry chain, scale efficiency has been brought about through the improvement of technological efficiency and the rapid growth of shale gas production. At present, domestic shale gas extraction has generated economic benefits. It is expected that 148 petrochemical fracturing vehicles will be tendered in 2019, an increase of 76%.The implementation of bidding will guarantee the growth of performance in 2020.
Increase the company’s operating income from 2019 to 2020 to 69.
13 ppm and 94.
11 ppm, the ten-year growth rate is 51% and 36%; increase the net profit attributable to mothers from 2019 to 2020 to 12 respectively.
06 ppm and 19.
3 billion, an annual increase of 96.
1% and 60%, give 15 times the estimate in 2020, raise the target price to 30.
22 yuan / share.
Risk reminders: 1) The industry’s business climate exceeds expectations; 2) Order delivery is lower than expected.