The market will no longer have full speculative energy currently testing stock selection capabilities
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!
Original title: The current market tests the ability to choose stocks □ Jin Xuewei’s stock market has old investors and new investors. The former is originally in the market, but it is only a new entrant.
In addition, there are two types: One is “crossing the river”, which specifically refers to predators outside the field, usually do not enter the market, they will sneak in before the opportunity comes, waiting for the opportunity to move.
Over the past 20 years, “crossing the river” has often been the engine of the bull market.
It’s just that in a bull market, people cheer for them, and when the bear market comes, they spit on their heads.
In the past two years, most of these investors have disappeared.
The other is what I call “reservation”. It’s not a short time to do stocks, but it doesn’t have the strength to make waves. It usually doesn’t do stocks. It comes in every bull market.
We can call a small part of them. Whenever they come to work, the big bull market is coming.
But more are hindsight.
Their common feature is that the first wave is always absent, and the first half of the second wave is also absent. It is not until the second wave rises that everyone is known, one after another. The iconic points areIt is the Shanghai Composite Index that has risen more than 40% from its lowest point.
Therefore, I believe that 40% is an important dividing line. For any initial rebound and consolidation, the maximum increase will be between 33% and 38%. Once it exceeds 40%, the nature of the change will fundamentally change.
Converted into the current Shanghai Stock Index, the index is more than 3400 points.
However, this is all past experience. I don’t know if it still works.
It ‘s just less than two weeks since the beginning of the year. I have received many phone calls from friends in the “reserve”: Teacher Jin, can 北京桑拿洗浴保健 you come in?
It made me feel “stressful”.
For more than 20 years, there has been no mistake in the prediction of each major bottom. Many friends have developed the habit of following you.
If it is a reserve force, there is nothing to say. Anyway, your money is always rotten in the stock market. It should be a kind of consultation. A suggestion.
Even if you finally misjudged the nature of the market, at least your first wave of bottom-selling money was finally made.
But this is not necessarily the case for “reserves.”
And I found that the more reserve, the heavier the fight, the more unruly, regardless of the three or seventeen twenty-one, when a stock is caught, it will be taken in and the expectations of profit will be higher.
I have been in the stock market all year round, and I know the hardships, sweetness, bitterness, and bitterness. Although I also want to make a lot of money, I can satisfy even if I ca n’t make a lot of money.
But in the “reserve” memory, they are left with 6124 points and 5178 points. For them, the bull market, it is no problem to buy a stock and earn 2 or 3 times.
What if it’s not a big bull market?
As far as you are concerned, he came here solemnly, and it is very disappointing to make a little money in the end. If you ca n’t make a profit, you will lose even more.
In fact, the stock market today is completely different from the past.
As I wrote in an article-first of all, the era of macroeconomic expansion due to industrialization has passed forever.
Economic growth is no longer a comprehensive alternative to structure, and internal competition in the industry is no longer a growth competition, but a zero-sum competition and even a negative-sum competition. To put it in a more pleasant phrase, it is called a “stock game”.
In fact, the supply-demand relationship of the stock market has also undergone a fundamental change. Like in the past bull market, the amount of capital entering the market is more than the accumulation of circulating market value.
It is remarkable that the ratio of funds to chips can reach at most 1: 5.
The market will no longer have full speculative energy, and the structural trends of “Nine Nine”, “Two Eight” and “37” will become the norm.
Such a market is like a film and television drama, where the protagonist exceeds the most shots and takes the big head; the supporting role has a small number of shots and the little head; participants, once, the last time they took 100 yuan, 200 yuan, not necessarilyIf you can show your face, but you ca n’t turn up, you can only turn off the lights and eat noodles.
The first benefit of this structured market is that the broader market index performance is more stable, the volatility becomes smaller, and the probability error of systemic risk occurs.
If there is, it is also closely related to the macroeconomic and financial indicators. It will not be like the past. It is clear that the economic situation is good, but the stock market has experienced major systemic risks.
The second advantage is that for people who are experienced, have better professional skills, and have a deeper understanding of the market and investment, they have to do it all year round.Pass the time.
But its disadvantage is that the market space has been compressed, regardless of the market or individual stocks.
In 2017 and 2019, the two years of exponential growth, the last 10% of the stocks in the annual growth list, the increase is 80%, then, if you want to buy stocks with annual growth of more than 80%, onlyOne of the probabilities.
This is a great test for stock selection ability, and at the same time, the ability to grasp the timing of trading has improved accordingly.
Such a market is actually no longer suitable for “reservation” troops that go away.Either you don’t come in, you have to take investment as a life-long career-you may not be the main cause, you don’t live on investment, but it must be long-term.
In fact, my basic attitude towards the current market is rational optimism.
It is optimistic that the adjustment of 5178 points is over, and all pessimistic and disappointing arguments lack too much theoretical and practical basis.
Rationally, I don’t think it’s at the starting point of the current bull market.
If it is said that the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are about to have the same sustained, significant, and generally growing bull market as in the past, even if they are similar, then in time, it should be three years later.