Estun (002747): 2018 performance is slightly lower than expected 2019 industry attempts to bottom out
Matters: Estun announced its annual report, and the company realized revenue in 201814.
6.1 billion, an annual growth of 35.
72%, net profit attributable to mothers1.
1.0 billion, an annual increase of 8.
The company plans to pay 0 for every 10 shares.
72 yuan (including tax).
At the same time, the company announced the quarterly report for 2019 and realized revenue3.
2.1 billion, an annual increase of 6.
21%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 0.
1.9 billion, an annual increase of 4.
Ping An’s perspective: Revenue continues to grow and gross profit margins have improved.
The company’s revenue grew steadily in 2018, among which: (1) the growth of core automation components and motion control systems23.
Benefiting from the good synergy effect after the acquisition of TRIO, the company’s motion control system business grew by about 50%.
(2) Industrial robots and intelligent manufacturing systems increased by 50.
Affected by the macro economy and the Sino-US trade war, the annual increase in industrial robot output in 2018 increased by 4%.
60%, accumulated ten years ago.
As a domestic industrial robot leader, the company can still maintain a growth rate of more than 50%, which reflects the company’s solid technical level and good operation and management capabilities.
In 2018, the gross profit margins of core components and motion control systems, industrial robots and intelligent manufacturing systems were 41.
65% and 30.
39%, a rise of 5.
05 and 0.
After the acquisition of TRIO, the proportion of high-end products of the company’s motion control system increased, driving the gross profit margin to increase.
The appearance of the scaling effect of industrial robots has also seen a slight increase in gross profit margin.
The company’s net profit growth rate is lower than the income growth rate, mainly including: (1) the company’s research and development, sales, production of high-end talent introduction led to increased labor costs (administrative expenses increase in employee compensation growth).
89%); (2) Affected by the macroeconomic impact, the financial interest cost caused by the tight funding surface increased (the company’s financial expenses increased by 162 in 2018).
R & D funding has remained high and new products are progressing smoothly.
The company has always expected R & D, and the long-term average annual R & D investment accounts for nearly 10%, and in 2018 it was as high as 11.
In 2018, the company’s R & D personnel accounted for more than 37.
35% are full of scientific research talents.
The company’s main R & D promotion directions include: (1) in the area of motion control systems, the company gradually releases new products to the market and establishes an international cooperative research and development mechanism; (2) in the field of industrial robots, the company develops specialized robot products for multiple emerging industries, Increase the use of robot two-dimensional and three-dimensional vision products, and research and development of man-machine cooperation, security protection, high-speed and high-precision control technologies.
The company has a constant investment in research and development, and has continuously made technological progress to stabilize the leading position of domestic robots.
The performance in the first quarter of 2019 was slightly lower than expected, thereby achieving a rebound in performance.
In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to mothers increased by 6 respectively.
21% and 4.
78%, lower than market expectations.
Affected by the macroeconomic situation in 2018, in the first quarter of 2019, the enthusiasm for manufacturing automation transformation declined.
From January to March 2019, the previous incremental production of industrial robots increased to 11.
At 7%, the performance of listed companies in the robotics sector was affected.
With the stabilization of the macro economy, the gradual 佛山桑拿网 clarification of Sino-U.S. Trade negotiations, and changes in funding, we believe that after the second quarter of 2019, the growth rate of the automation market is expected to bottom out, and the company’s two major businesses are expected to once againUp.
Investment suggestion: Taking into account changes in the growth rate of the industry, we lowered our profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 2019-2021 will be 1.
4.2 billion / 1.
87 ppm / 2.
39 ppm (1 before 2019-2020).
94 ppm / 2.
880,000 yuan), EPS is 0.
17 yuan / 0.
22 yuan / 0.
29 yuan (average 0 before 2019-2020).
23 yuan / 0.
34 yuan), the corresponding P / E ratio is 58 times / 44 times / 35 times.
Industrial robots head into the world brand, the layout of high-end motion control systems is shrinking, and the company’s performance continues to improve, maintaining the “recommended” level.
Risk reminders: (1) Risk of sluggish downstream demand.
If there is a serious decline in the macro economy, the growth rate of equipment investment in various industries will change, and the growth rate of the company’s industrial robot sales may be at risk.
(2) Increased market competition risks.
China is currently the world’s most important robot market, with the rapid rise of domestic brick-and-mortar companies, and well-known overseas robot companies have stepped up their localization efforts. If competition in the domestic robot market intensifies in the future, product prices and gross profit margins will be affected, affecting the company’s profitability.
(3) Outward development risks.
The company has launched a series of mergers and acquisitions in recent years. If the acquisition target is better integrated with the company’s replacement, the progress of the projects and continuous operations of the two parties will be worse than expected, which will affect the company’s performance.
(4) Risk of escalating Sino-US trade war.
Affected by the Sino-U.S. Trade war, some machinery company products have been included in the price list, affecting the company’s export business; if the future trade war escalates, it will have an impact on the entire manufacturing industry.